You know, to understand exchange rates, you really need to grasp one concept—foreign exchange, i.e. foreign money, is really just another commodity to be bought and sold. This is where the term "foreign exchange market" comes from. It's a market, so there must be those who want to buy the currency, and those who supply it. On the demand side, what reason (or reasons) could people possibly have to want to purchase foreign exchange?
你知道，要了解匯率，你真的必須要理解一個概念－－外匯，也就是外幣，其實只是另一種被買賣的商品。這就是「外匯市場」一詞產生的地方。這是一個市場，所以那裡一定會有那些想要購買貨幣的人，以及那些供給貨幣的人。在需求這一方面來看，什麼會是人們也許會想要購買外匯的原因(或各種原因) 呢？
Well, there are three major reasons really: First, people want foreign money for travel and tourism; second, foreign money is needed for trade to buy foreign goods and services; third, foreign money is needed for investment purposes, be it financial investment, like purchase of foreign denominated financial assets, or real investment, like building a new factory overseas.
嗯，其實有三個主要原因：第一，人們需要外幣來旅遊和觀光；第二，購買外國商品及服務的交易需要外幣；第三，投資目的需要外幣，不管是金融性投資，像是外匯金融資產購買，或是實質性投資，像是在海外建造一座新工廠。
A change in any of these three components will alter the demand for foreign exchange. For example, a lot of recent Hollywood blockbuster movies have been filmed in New Zealand. What if this creates a sudden surge in tourists going to New Zealand? These tourists will need New Zealand dollars, creating an increase in demand for that currency. Similarly, if U.S. companies decide they'd like to build factories in New Zealand (real investment), or purchase New Zealand dollar denominated financial assets (financial investment), the demand for the New Zealand dollar would increase.
任何一個在這三樣要素中的變動都會改變對外匯的需求。舉例來說，許多最近的好萊塢賣座電影是在紐西蘭拍攝的。假如這造成去紐西蘭的遊客數量激增會怎樣呢？這些遊客會需要紐幣，引起對那種貨幣需求的增加。相同地，假使美國公司決定他們要在紐西蘭建造工廠 (實質性投資)，或購買紐西蘭幣金融資產 (金融性投資)，那對紐幣的需求就會增加。
Now, let's go back to the idea of the foreign exchange market, with the New Zealand dollar being the foreign exchange. Initially, there is a certain supply of New Zealand dollars, and a certain demand. The equilibrium price in this market is called the exchange rate. Okay, now let's throw the increase in demand for the New Zealand dollar into the picture. What happens to the value of the New Zealand dollar as more tourists travel there, or as more U.S. companies invest?
現在，讓我們回到外匯市場的概念，用紐幣當做那外匯。最初，在那有某種一定程度的紐幣供給，以及某種一定程度的需求。在這市場的平衡價格就稱為「匯率」。好，現在我們把對紐幣需求的增加丟到這圖表裡。當更多遊客到紐西蘭旅遊，或更多美國公司投資時，紐幣的價值會發生什麼事？
As with any commodity, when the demand for the New Zealand dollar increases, its value increases. We see the exchange rate, in terms of the U.S. dollar per New Zealand dollar, increase. This is called an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar. When dealing with bilateral exchange rates like this one—that is to say, the relative value of two currencies—it is necessarily the case that this one currency becomes stronger or more valuable, relative to the other, (in this case, the New Zealand dollar is increasing in value relative to the U.S. dollar), the other currency is decreasing in value, or depreciating.
就像任何商品，當對紐幣的需求增加時，它的價值就上升了。我們看到那匯率，就美元兌一紐幣而言，增加了。這就叫紐幣的升值。在面對像此一例的兩方匯率時－－也就是指兩種貨幣的相對價值－－情況一定是這一種貨幣變得更強勢或更有價值，相較於另一貨幣，(在這個例子，紐幣相較於美元的價值在增加)，此時另一種貨幣的價值就在降低，或貶值。
In this example, as the New Zealand dollar appreciates, the U.S. dollar is getting relatively weaker, or depreciating. Okay, so changes in demand for currency will affect the exchange rate. What about changes in supply?
在這個例子中，當紐幣升值時，美元正變得相對較弱勢，或貶值。好的，所以貨幣需求的變化將會影響匯率。那麼供給的變化呢？
Well, ultimately, who is it that controls the supply of foreign currency? The foreign government. If the U.S. wanted to drive the value of its own currency up, it would decrease the supply of dollars. If it wanted to drive the value down, it would increase the supply of dollars. Why would a country want to manipulate its own currency value?
嗯，歸根究柢，誰是控制外幣供給的那人？外國政府。如果美國想要使它自己的貨幣升值，它會減少美元的供給。如果它想要讓幣值下降，它會增加美元的供給。為什麼一個國家會想要操控它自己的貨幣價值呢？
Let me give you an example. Suppose you're a U.S. furniture producer, and government protection for the spotted owl means you can't get the lumber that you need domestically. So you call up a Canadian lumber mill, tell them you'd like to place an order, and they tell you that the lumber is going to cost 50,000 Canadian dollars. I don't know about you, but my bank account doesn't happen to have any Canadian dollars in it. This is where the exchange rate comes in. If I can figure out how much one Canadian dollar costs, then I can use that to calculate how much 50,000 Canadian dollars will cost.
讓我舉個例子給你。假設你是一個美國傢俱製造商，而政府對斑點鴞的保護政策代表你不能從國內得到你所需的木材。所以你打給一間加拿大木材工廠，告訴他們你想要下訂單，然後他們告訴你那木材將會花費五萬加幣。我是不知道你的狀況啦，但我的銀行帳戶可沒剛好有加幣在裡面。這就是匯率進來作用的時候。如果我可以計算出一加幣是花多少美元，那麼我就可以用那來算出五萬加幣會花多少美元。
The price of one Canadian dollar in terms of U.S. dollars is the exchange rate (dollars per Canadian dollar). I checked the dollar per Canadian dollar exchange rate for April 7, 2010 on x-rates.com, and found that Canadian dollar was equivalent to 0.998 U.S. dollars. Just as a side note, this nearly one-to-one parity between the two country's currencies is highly unusual. More on that in a minute.
一加幣按照美元來表示的價格就是匯率 (多少美元兌一加幣)。我在 x-rates.com 查了 2010 年 4 月 7 日美元兌一加幣的匯率，且發現加幣相等於 0.998 美元。只是附註一下，在這兩國的貨幣間幾乎一比一相等的匯率極度不尋常。等一下會再對那作更多說明。
So if one Canadian dollar costs 99.8 cents U.S. currency, how much will 50,000 Canadian dollars cost? In the end, it will cost you 49,900 U.S. dollars to purchase the Canadian lumber. Now let's take a little trip back in time, and figure out how much that same 50,000 Canadian dollars worth of lumber would have cost in April of each year for the previous 20 years. When would you most like to have purchased that lumber?
所以如果一加幣花費 99.8 分錢的美國貨幣，那五萬加幣會花多少錢？結果，買加拿大木材會花費你 49,900 美元。現在讓我們來一小趟時光回溯之旅，並弄清楚那同樣有五萬加幣價值的木材會在過去二十年中每年的四月花費多少錢。哪個時間點你會最可能購買那批木材？
You can see by looking at the data that when the foreign currency is the cheapest, (in this case, 2001, at 64 cents per Canadian dollar), the foreign imports are the cheapest—32,000 U.S. dollars. Even if the Canadian lumber mill sees the same 50,000 Canadian dollars every year, the price to the U.S. importer changes as the exchange rate changes.
你可以藉由觀察那資料看出何時外幣最便宜，(這個例子中，2001 年，在 64 分美元兌一加幣時)，此時外國進口最便宜－－32,000 美元。即使加拿大木材廠每年都看見相同的五萬加幣，對美國進口商的價格則會隨匯率變化而改變。
When the Canadian dollar depreciates, the lumber is cheaper, and U.S. importers will buy more lumber. On the flip side, as the Canadian dollar depreciates, the U.S. dollar is getting stronger relative to the Canadian dollar, or it's appreciating. While U.S. consumers are enjoying a strong dollar and buying lots of Canadian goods, Canadians are seeing the U.S. dollar, and therefore U.S. goods, as more expensive. Canadians import fewer U.S. products if the Canadian currency is weak.
當加幣貶值時，木材比較便宜，美國進口商會買更多木材。另一方面，當加幣貶值，美元相較加幣變得更強勢，或它在升值。當美國消費者在享受強勢的美元並買進許多加拿大商品時，加拿大人正視美元為更加昂貴的，因此美國商品也會被視為更昂貴的。如果加拿大貨幣疲軟，加拿大人進口較少美國產品。
A weak Canadian dollar is good for Canada's trade balance, as Canada's exports rise and imports fall. At the same time, the U.S. trade balance gets worse—we are importing more and exporting less. The effect of the currency value on the trade balance takes me back to the question—why would a country want to manipulate its own currency value?
一個疲軟的加幣對加拿大的貿易平衡有益，因為加拿大的出口量上升而進口量下降。同時，美國貿易平衡惡化－－我們在進口更多，然後出口更少。幣值對貿易平衡的影響讓我回到那個問題－－ 為什麼一個國家會想要操控它自己的貨幣價值呢？
You now know the answer to this: if a country can keep its currency cheap, then it keeps its products cheap, and foreign products expensive, both of which are good for the balance of trade. The U.S. has certainly been after China during the first decade of the 21st century. China keeps its currency value artificially low in order to keep favorable trade balance.
你現在知道這個問題的答案：如果一個國家可以維持它的貨幣便宜的話，那麼它就能維持它的產品價格低廉，而外國產品昂貴，兩者都對貿易平衡有好處。美國當然在 21 世紀首個十年間追在中國後。中國將其幣值維持在刻意低迷的情況，以保持有利的貿易平衡狀態。
Next time: Comparative Advantage and Trade.
下一回：比較利益與貿易。
- 「訂購」- Place An Order
So you call up a Canadian lumber mill, tell them you'd like to place an order...
所以你打給一間加拿大木材工廠，告訴他們你想要下訂單... - 「另一方面、反而言之」- On The Flip Side
On the flip side, as the Canadian dollar depreciates, the U.S. dollar is getting stronger relative to the Canadian dollar, or it's appreciating.
另一方面，當加幣貶值，美元相較加幣變得更強勢，或它在升值。
