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「為什麼 ISIS 要對巴黎下手?」- Why ISIS Would Attack Paris


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On November 13, gunmen and bombers attacked a number of locations throughout Paris. They killed over 120 people and wounded an even larger number.
11 月 13 日,槍手和炸彈客攻擊巴黎數處。他們殺害超過 120 人,且對為數更多的人們造成傷害。

"What happened yesterday in Paris was an act of war."
「昨天在巴黎發生的事件是一個戰爭行為。」

ISIS, otherwise known as the Islamic State, claimed responsibility for these attacks.
ISIS,或稱作伊斯蘭國,宣稱他們是這些攻擊的起因。

"A group of believers from the Soldiers of the Caliphate set out targeting the capital of prostitution and vice, the lead carrier of the cross in Europe—Paris."
「一群哈里發士兵的信徒開始將墮落及罪惡之都當作標靶,也就是歐洲主要信奉天主教的城市--巴黎。」

In the past, ISIS really hasn't launched any major terrorist attacks abroad. ISIS's basic goal is holding on to its territory in Iraq and Syria. Why change your strategy now? One theory, according to the Brookings Institution's Will McCants, is that they're trying to warn off their enemies abroad.
過去,ISIS 其實真的沒有在海外發動過任何大規模的恐怖攻擊。ISIS 的主要目標是繼續掌握它在伊拉克和敘利亞的領地。為什麼現在改變策略呢?一個推論,根據布魯金斯學會的 Will McCants 表示,是 ISIS 在嘗試嚇退他們在海外的敵人。

"They want to deter further military action."
「他們想要嚇阻更進一步的軍事行動。」

Recently, ISIS has been losing territory. Bombing from the US-led coalition, which includes France, has hurt the group.
近來,ISIS 開始喪失版圖。來自美國領導聯軍的轟炸,包含法國,已對組織造成傷害。

"They have lost something like 25 percent of their territory."
「他們失去了大概百分之二十五的領地。」

So ISIS has a problem: It has strong foreign militaries that are fighting against it, and it doesn't have a good way to fight back at them. So one theory, according to McCants, is that the attack in Paris is a means of showing these enemies that ISIS will hurt them if they keep attacking it. Evidence for this theory includes the fact that ISIS recently attacked a part of Lebanon...the—that's a Hezbollah stronghold. Hezbollah is a Lebanese militia that is fighting on the same side as Bashar al-Assad in Syria, nominally an ISIS enemy. Similarly, there's strong suspicion that ISIS bombed a Russian civilian airliner in Egypt.
所以 ISIS 有個麻煩:有強大的海外軍隊在對抗它,但它卻沒有對他們反攻的好方法。所以根據 McCants 的推論,巴黎的攻擊是一個向這些敵人表態的方法,告訴他們如果繼續攻擊 ISIS,ISIS 將會傷害他們。這個理論的證據包含 ISIS 最近攻擊黎巴嫩一個區域這件事,那區域是個真主黨的要塞。真主黨是一個和敘利亞總統阿塞德站在同一陣線的黎巴嫩民兵部隊,阿塞德就代表 ISIS 的敵人。同樣地,ISIS 很有嫌疑在埃及炸毀一架俄羅斯民航機。

So the idea here is that ISIS wants to show potential enemies that you will pay a price if you attack ISIS in Syria and Iraq. So if ISIS attacked Paris, it might not have been out of strength—it might've been out of weakness.
所以那推測是,ISIS 想要讓潛在的敵人知道,如果你在敘利亞和伊拉克攻擊 ISIS,你將會付出代價。所以即使 ISIS 攻擊巴黎,那有可能不是因為力量--那有可能是因為勢力動搖。

  • 「抓住、不放棄擁有」- Hold On To

    ISIS's basic goal is holding on to its territory in Iraq and Syria.
    ISIS 的主要目標是繼續掌握它在伊拉克和敘利亞的領地。

  • 「根據、按照」- According To

    One theory, according to the Brookings Institution's Will McCants, is that they're trying to warn off their enemies abroad.
    一個推論,根據布魯金斯學會的 Will McCants 表示,是 ISIS 在嘗試嚇退他們在海外的敵人。

  • 「警告...離開、不得靠近」- Warn Off

    One theory, according to the Brookings Institution's Will McCants, is that they're trying to warn off their enemies abroad.
    一個推論,根據布魯金斯學會的 Will McCants 表示,是 ISIS 在嘗試嚇退他們在海外的敵人。

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