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「北極暖化,全球氣候即將大洗牌?」- Arctic Warming Pushes Winter Weather Further South


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Have you ever wondered how the rapid warm-up in the Arctic and climate change could disrupt winds at high altitudes across the United States, Europe, and Asia? Well, if you're like most people, you probably haven't given it a thought. But as a meteorologist, I'm paying close attention to what's going on because it often leads to weather like this.
你曾想過北極劇烈的暖化和氣候變遷可能會怎樣擾亂美國、歐洲和亞洲地區高空的風嗎?這個嘛,如果你和多數人一樣,你大概從來沒有去思考過。不過身為一個氣象學家,我正密切關注著情況,因為那常會導致像現在這樣的天氣。

There's no place on Earth where the climate is changing as fast as it is here. You've probably seen pictures like this of Alaskan glaciers. This is 1902; here's the same location now. In this part of Alaska, we're losing ice at a rate of nearly two cubic miles per decade. Not all glaciers are shrinking this fast, but most of them in the mid- and higher-mid latitudes are melting pretty quickly. Here's another one: It's the Muir Glacier in 1941. Here it is now.
地球上沒有任何地方的氣候變化得和此處一樣快。你或許看過像這樣的阿拉斯加冰河照片。這是 1902 年的景象;這是同樣地點目前的樣子。在阿拉斯加的這個地區,我們正以將近每十年兩立方英里的速度喪失冰。並非所有冰河都消退得如此快,不過多數在中緯度和高緯度地區的冰河都正頗快速地融化。這裡是另一個例子:這是 1941 年的繆爾冰河。這是它現在。

These are maps of the earth's surface temperature anomalies that are variance from normal over the last few decades. Everywhere you see yellow, orange, and red is where the temperature is now averaging above normal. Look at where most of the global warmth is occurring.
這些是地球表面溫度異常的地圖,那些是和過去數十年來正常溫度的差異。你看見呈黃色、橘色以及紅色的每個地方就是目前溫度平均高於正常的區域。看看全球暖化大多發生在哪裡。

As a meteorologist, I am finding this pretty amazing, because the warmth that I'm seeing in the Arctic isn't just at the earth's surface; it's extending thousands of feet up in altitude. So why, though, should the warmth at high altitudes over the Arctic matter to us thousands of miles away farther south across the United States, Europe, and Asia? Well, it's all connected, and I'll show you how.
身為一名氣象學家,我發現這頗為驚人,因為我正在觀察的北極暖化不只發生在地球表面;它還延伸好幾英呎高。然而,為什麼北極高海拔發生的暖化會和我們有關係,對往南好幾千英里遠的美國、歐洲和亞洲的我們有什麼影響?嗯,這全都有關聯,我來讓你看看是怎樣。

First, we all know that the sun heats the equator more than at the poles, but what you may not know is because of that difference in heating, the atmosphere is deeper at the equator than it is at the poles, and this is important. That difference in atmosphere depth is what drives winds in the upper atmosphere which travel around the world. Those are the winds that create our weather. They move storms, warm, and cold air masses around.
首先,我們都知道太陽加熱赤道比兩極來得多,不過你可能不知道的是,因為那加熱程度的差異,大氣層在赤道比在兩極厚,而這很重要。大氣層厚度的那種差異驅動了在高層大氣層流動於全球的風。那些就是創造出我們的天氣的風。它們將暴風雨、暖氣團和冷氣團四處移動。

When the Arctic is anomalously warm, those winds have to shift south. In effect, the refrigerator door, so to speak, is opened, and the Arctic's warmth spills south, becoming a mid-latitude chill. Not theory, it's measurably happening. We saw some extreme examples of this in the winters of 2010 and 2011: the record cold and snow in Europe; the record cold in Florida. A rapid succession of snowstorms over the eastern part of the United States and historic snows over the Great Lakes are all part of a pattern of record warmth in the Arctic, especially over Greenland and Alaska. This displaces the Arctic weather farther to the South.
當北極異常溫暖時,那些風就得往南移。實際上,可說是冰箱門被打開了,而北極的熱量散到南方,成為中緯度的寒冷。這並非理論,這是可測量地正在發生的事。我們在 2010 和 2011 年的冬天見識到一些這樣的極端例子:歐洲的低溫紀錄和降雪紀錄;佛羅里達州的低溫紀錄。美國東部接踵而來的暴風雪以及五大湖區歷史性的降雪都是北極空前暖化的模式的一部分,特別是在格陵蘭和阿拉斯加地區。這迫使北極的天氣向南移。

What's meteorologically interesting about this is that the effect is most prominent during the winter. That's when the temperature differences are at their greatest between the equator and the poles. So when the Arctic is anomalously warm, the mid-latitudes across North America, Europe, and Asia often end up like this.
這在氣象學上有趣的地方是,這影響在冬季最為明顯。冬天是赤道和兩極間的溫度差異最劇的時節。所以當北極異常溫暖時,北美洲、歐洲和亞洲的中緯度地區最後常就會變得像這樣。

And, looking into the future, global climate models continue to show change with a steady decrease in Arctic sea ice, a likely result of both warmer temperatures and disruptions in Arctic wind patterns. In the coming decades, climate models also show significant increase in global temperature, especially in the Arctic. But this is an average. As the Arctic warms, there will be disruptions in atmospheric circulation. Some, as we've seen, won't be so warm.
然後,檢視未來,全球氣候模式持續伴隨著北極海冰的平穩減少顯現出變化,一個很可能是溫度上升和北極風模式擾亂下的結果。在未來幾十年,氣候模式在全球溫度也顯示出明顯上升,特別是在北極。不過這是一般狀況。隨著北極變暖,大氣環流將會有擾亂情況。有些地區,如我們已經見到的,不會太溫暖。

In this video, we've only touched on just one of the many potential impacts a warmer Arctic can have on us as it feeds back into the climate system. The notion that climate change is a good thing and that we're all gonna be basking in warmer weather in the coming decades is most certainly a misunderstanding. As the world continues to warm so unevenly, it seems very likely there's going to be additional disruptions and storm tracks and precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere. Put simply, it probably means that most of us are going to end up with what used to be somebody else's weather.
在這部影片中,我們只觸及到暖化的北極可能會對我們造成的許多潛在影響之一,在北極暖化反應到氣候系統中時。氣候變遷是件好事這樣的看法,以及我們所有人在未來數十年將沐浴在更溫暖的天氣中這種想法,很肯定是種誤解。隨著世界持續如此不平均地變暖,很可能將會有額外的擾亂以及風暴路徑和降雨在北半球發生。簡而言之,這或許代表我們大多數人最後將活在以前曾是他人所習慣的氣候中。

  • 「關心、注意」- Pay Attention To

    But as a meteorologist, I'm paying close attention to what's going on because it often leads to weather like this.
    不過身為一個氣象學家,我正密切關注著情況,因為那常會導致像現在這樣的天氣。

  • 「導致、引起」- Lead To

    But as a meteorologist, I'm paying close attention to what's going on because it often leads to weather like this.
    不過身為一個氣象學家,我正密切關注著情況,因為那常會導致像現在這樣的天氣。

  • 「實際上」- In Effect

    In effect, the refrigerator door, so to speak, is opened...
    實際上,可說是冰箱門被打開了...

  • 「可以說、可謂」- So To Speak

    In effect, the refrigerator door, so to speak, is opened...
    實際上,可說是冰箱門被打開了...

  • 「結果成為」- End Up

    So when the Arctic is anomalously warm, the mid-latitudes across North America, Europe, and Asia often end up like this.
    所以當北極異常溫暖時,北美洲、歐洲和亞洲的中緯度地區最後常就會變得像這樣。

  • 「簡略地講述、提到」- Touch On

    In this video, we've only touched on just one of the many potential impacts a warmer Arctic can have on us as it feeds back into the climate system.
    在這部影片中,我們只觸及到暖化的北極可能會對我們造成的許多潛在影響之一,在北極暖化反應到氣候系統中時。

  • 「反應、反饋」- Feed Back

    In this video, we've only touched on just one of the many potential impacts a warmer Arctic can have on us as it feeds back into the climate system.
    在這部影片中,我們只觸及到暖化的北極可能會對我們造成的許多潛在影響之一,在北極暖化反應到氣候系統中時。

  • 「簡而言之」- Put Simply

    Put simply, it probably means that most of us are going to end up with what used to be somebody else's weather.
    簡而言之,這或許代表我們大多數人最後將活在以前曾是他人所習慣的氣候中。

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